Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today's mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the rate market is responding to war-related headlines and their impact on oil prices. Rates don't always care what oil prices are doing, but at present, there's more correlation than normal due to the inflation implications from a protracted conflict. Inflation is the true concern for bonds/rates when it comes to oil. Today's headlines involved various de-escalation anecdotes, mainly centering on Israel and Lebanon. Prior to those headlines, rates were set to match yesterday's levels. Afterward, the average lender was 0.02% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed rate.
VantageScore, created in 2006, is a joint venture by the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion). Will it change your lending process? Possibly. Do government regulations change your lending process? States have trigger lead requirement overlays, over and above what was enacted at the Federal level in March. (Talk to your attorney.) Some states are rumored to be looking at bundling credit report fees, referring to the practice of combining various charges associated with obtaining credit reports into a single, all-inclusive fee, which can “help eliminate hidden costs, improve compliance with regulations, and simplify the pricing structure for consumers and lenders alike.” Some companies, like Birchwood, discuss bundling and transparency. Interest rates are relatively transparent, and on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET Chris Bennett of Vice Capital Markets will discuss strategies given shifting rates, geopolitics, and framing hedging given the Fed’s thoughts. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with OFA Group’s Thomas Gaffney on what real problems tokenization solves in mortgage finance today, where it will gain early traction in residential real estate, and how lenders can assess regulatory risk and platform credibility as the market evolves.)
The overnight session leading into this morning's open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday's example. The boatload of econ data line items did nothing to change that. Expectations weren't high anyway. GDP (Q4) and monthly PCE (February) are both too stale to matter. Jobless Claims were a mixed bag with initial claims rising substantially and continued claims falling off a cliff (lowest since May 2024). But again, bonds have done nothing with the data and trading levels are almost perfectly flat to start another day of watching war headlines.
Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday's close, we're back to unchanged levels near 4.30%. The move follows a similar correction seen in longer-term oil futures and, in a general sense, a news cycle that made the ceasefire seem increasingly tenuous as the day progressed. The absence of a bigger, sustained rally speaks to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East as well as lingering impacts on energy costs that may still flow through to inflation data.
Market Movement Recap
09:08 AM logically stronger overnight and holding gains steadily so far. MBS up almost 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.244
10:58 AM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) but down a quarter point from highs. 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.268, but up more than 3bps from lows.
02:09 PM No reaction to 10yr auction or Fed minutes. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.274
02:44 PM New lows. MBS just barely better than unchanged, and same story for 10yr yield at 4.293
It's a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours. If we measure the reversal versus yesterday's closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complete. But bonds were already rallying in the afternoon due to expectations for the official ceasefire news. All that to say, we're still in noticeably better shape than we were mid-day yesterday, but the overall improvement is smaller than most borrowers would expect. In fact, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is just barely at the low end of April's range at 6.40% vs the previous low of 6.41% on April 2nd. Earlier today, it was as low as 6.38%, but mortgage lenders made mid-day changes in response to bond market deterioration.
U.S. population growth slowed sharply between July 2024 and July 2025, rising just 1.8 million people (0.5 percent) to 341.8 million, the weakest growth since the early pandemic. This was driven primarily by a steep 54 percent drop in net international migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million (the result of ICE?), while births and deaths remained relatively stable. Growth decelerated across nearly all states and regions, though the Midwest continued a modest resurgence with positive domestic migration for the first time this decade, South Carolina emerged as the fastest-growing state due to strong domestic inflows, and overall trends point to a structurally slower growth trajectory as both migration and natural population increase remain well below historical norms. Do you shift your lending based on demographics? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Asset Based Lending’s Kevin Rodman on balancing demand across its lending platforms by staying disciplined on risk, adapting to shifting investor behavior, and pursuing sustainable growth in a more cautious market cycle.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), is committed to providing mortgage lenders with a sustainable funding source in an uncertain market. With over 30 years’ experience and a well-capitalized, diversified financial holding company, PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending provides confidence to meet our mortgage lending partners’ funding needs. With exceptional operational performance, and a focus on relationship-driven business geared towards long-term success, we do not dwell on unnecessary fees. With PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending there are NO non-usage fees, NO application or renewal fees, NO third party due diligence fees or Third Party Doc Custodians and NO interest charged on the day of loan settlement. If you attending the TMBA Annual Convention in Austin, TX and interested in learning more about PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending please contact Brent Amos or Deric Barnett.”
The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday's recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we watched overnight price movement yesterday evening (and also hoping there wouldn't be some counterintuitive head fake). As the domestic session gets underway, things are proceeding very logically with bonds building just a bit on last night's rally and stocks doing the same. Oil prices were the earliest adopters and haven't improved on their initial drop, but they're close enough to the lows (down more than 20% from the highs). There's no big ticket data on the calendar today, so the gameplan is to babysit the rally and adapt accordingly.
Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different
April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump's terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump's threats, it would all but preclude a quick end to the war and especially the market-related fallout. heading into the close, Pakistan floated an option for a 2-week ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded favorably to notion with stocks and bond both rallying and oil prices falling to session lows. Given the absolute and severe nature of the alternative, it would be a surprise if tomorrow didn't involve a larger than normal move in one direction or the other.
Econ Data / Events
ADP Employment Change Weekly
26K vs -- f'cast, 10K prev
Core CapEx (Feb)
0.6% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0% prev
Durable goods (Feb)
-1.4% vs -0.5% f'cast, 0% prev
Market Movement Recap
09:03 AM Flat overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.331
09:41 AM Down an eighth of a point in MBS and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.356
11:30 AM Near weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.364
03:07 PM Decent recovery. MBS down only an eighth and 10yr down almost half a bp at 4.336
04:34 PM well into the green now on ceasefire optimism. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.305
In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April's mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they've held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday. The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the financial markets, including the bond market that underlies interest rates. Given that tonight brings a deadline for a potentially major escalation in the war, there's a risk of volatility heading into tomorrow.
Artificial intelligence is all the rage in conferences and webinars, and today’s Advisory Angle at 2PM ET, powered by STRATMOR Group. Sue Woodard and Garth Graham break down the biggest takeaways from ICE Experience 2026 and what they mean for lenders right now. The discussion focuses on borrower expectations, AI adoption, and how leading organizations are aligning strategy with long-term outcomes. Tomorrow’s "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One, has the CHLA’s Scott Olsen discussing how and what independent mortgage bankers are doing in the current AI, regulatory, and origination environment. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Moder’s Erik Andersen on the company’s strategic partnership with Palantir Technologies to co-build an AI-powered mortgage operations platform.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “AI in mortgage is everywhere, but where is it actually driving real results versus just hype? Join JazzX AI for on Monday, April 20th at 1PM ET/10AM PT for our webinar AI in Mortgage: From Pilot to Production - How Leading Lenders Are Deploying AI Today. We’ll be joined by leaders from across the industry to unpack how they’re prioritizing AI use cases, measuring ROI, and turning early experiments into meaningful impact. You’ll hear candid lessons on what’s working, what’s not, and how teams are thinking about time-to-value as AI adoption accelerates. Reserve your spot today to hear how leading lenders are turning AI into real results.”
